A business strategy book
“What is going to happen?”
For thirty years, every room asked the same question. Some of the answer is genuinely unknowable. The structure underneath it is not. And it can be tested.
The book
The Opaque Surprise
How technology transitions really work — and what to do when even the builders can’t see what’s coming. A book about the structural pattern underneath four decades of technology transitions, tested against the documented record, with working tests a strategist can run on Monday. Currently in preparation.
The essays
Scenario Planning Methodology Series
A series of essays on where scenario planning works, where it fails, and what to do at the boundary, the intellectual seedbed of the book. The series opens with Opaque Surprises — Where Scenario Planning Falls Short.
The toolkit
Tests you can run
Each essay works through a case and leaves behind a diagnostic. The toolkit collects them in one place, for a reader who wants the test rather than the argument. Alongside it, the notes hold dated codings and datasets, published so that anyone can check the working.
Newsletter
New essays by email, roughly monthly. Sign-up opens shortly.