Essays

The Scenario Planning Methodology Series — the essays in which this book’s arguments were first worked out in public.

Opaque Surprises — Where Scenario Planning Falls Short

Essay 1 · Scenario Planning Methodology Series

Scenario planning earned its reputation as one of the twentieth century’s most effective tools for decision-making under uncertainty. Is it still fit for purpose in the age of frontier AI? The essay that names the third kind of surprise.

Buying the Past — The Acquisition Risk Nobody’s Diligence Examines

Companion essay to The Opaque Surprise · currently out for placement

Roughly two hundred billion dollars of the most famous acquisition writedowns share one checkable signature: the acquirer paid growth prices for a position in an industry layer already past its peak. Publication details to follow.

The remaining essays in the series are being prepared for this archive and will be published here on a regular schedule.